Hydrogen, SAF, and Dubai’s Aviation Transition: Building the Fuel System for Net Zero Skies

Dubai’s most practical path to aviation decarbonisation is staged: scale Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) first, industrialise power-to-liquid (PtL) e-fuels next, and prepare for hydrogen infrastructure where it delivers earlier value (airside and ground operations) while aircraft technology matures. The main risk is not only fuel supply, but credibility: aviation fuel claims need lifecycle accounting, chain-of-custody, and consistent documentation across suppliers, batches, and uplift. This post outlines what is likely to scale when in the UAE and the minimum data you need to make aviation fuel claims audit-ready.

Key takeaways

The International Energy Agency estimates aviation reached ~950 Mt CO₂ in 2023, roughly 2.5% of global energy-related CO₂.
Dubai Airports reported that DXB welcomed 92.3 million guests in 2024.
The UAE SAF General Policy includes a target for 700 million litres/year SAF production capacity by 2030 and a voluntary target for locally produced SAF to represent at least 1% of fuel used by national airlines at UAE airports by 2031.
The UAE National Hydrogen Strategy targets 1.4 mtpa by 2031, 7.5 mtpa by 2040, and 15 mtpa by 2050.
A Royal Society policy briefing provides an order-of-magnitude estimate of PtL energy input around ~39–55 kWh per kg of fuel, depending on assumptions.

Definitions (one-liners)

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): non-fossil jet fuel pathways that meet aviation fuel specifications and can be blended into conventional jet fuel supply.
PtL e-fuels / e-kerosene: synthetic fuels made using low-emission hydrogen and captured CO₂, designed to be compatible with today’s aircraft if they meet fuel specifications.
Chain-of-custody: how you prove ownership/claims of a fuel’s attributes from producer to end user (this can differ for physical delivery vs book-and-claim approaches).
CORSIA: the ICAO Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation, which defines eligibility and sustainability criteria for certain fuel claims under CORSIA eligible fuels guidance.

Why this matters now for Dubai aviation

Dubai cannot treat aviation decarbonisation as a distant problem. When a city is built around global connectivity, aviation is part of the growth story and increasingly part of the sustainability story.

Two context points frame the urgency. The International Energy Agency estimates aviation emissions reached ~950 Mt CO₂ in 2023, about 2.5% of global energy-related CO₂, and Dubai Airports reported DXB welcomed 92.3 million guests in 2024.

If you’re building airport operations, aviation infrastructure, or sustainability strategy in the GCC, the core question is: how do you decarbonise aviation in a way that scales and stays defensible?

What scales when: SAF, e-fuels, and hydrogen

A practical way to think about “hydrogen-ready aviation” is not one big switch, but a staged fuel system transition.

SAF (first to scale)

SAF can scale earlier because it fits today’s aircraft and airport fuel infrastructure when used within current approvals and supply constraints.

The UAE has explicitly signalled SAF ambition in the UAE SAF General Policy, including 700 million litres/year production capacity by 2030 and a voluntary 1% locally produced SAF target by 2031.

Dubai also has visible airline activity: Emirates has operated a SAF demonstration flight where one engine was powered by 100% SAF in a demonstration context.

For regular commercial operations, SAF use is typically within approved blend limits by pathway and certification, and UAE Media Office coverage of the Emirates milestone demonstration notes SAF is currently approved for use in blends up to 50% with conventional jet fuel.

Hydrogen-to-jet e-fuels (the “fleet-compatible” hydrogen pathway)

If hydrogen becomes a major lever for aviation in the 2030s, it is more likely to scale first via PtL e-fuels because they can be used in today’s fleet if they meet fuel specifications.

PtL e-fuels are constrained by energy inputs and upstream requirements (clean electricity, hydrogen production, CO₂ sourcing), and a Royal Society policy briefing provides an order-of-magnitude estimate of ~39–55 kWh per kg of fuel produced, depending on assumptions.

Direct hydrogen flight (longer-term)

Direct hydrogen flight has promise, but it requires new aircraft designs, new airport infrastructure, and a mature hydrogen ecosystem, so timelines remain uncertain.

An IATA hydrogen fact sheet notes that liquid hydrogen can require around 4× the tank volume of kerosene, which affects aircraft design and airport infrastructure planning.

On timelines, Reuters reported Airbus postponed development of its hydrogen aircraft beyond earlier ambitions.

Dubai’s near-term advantage: demand, policy, and visible ground innovation

Dubai’s advantage is not just demand, it is the combination of demand scale, national policy signals, and the ability to trial operational decarbonisation at airports.

Dubai’s “pull factors” are unusually concentrated:

Demand density: Dubai Airports reported DXB welcomed 92.3 million guests in 2024.
Policy direction: the UAE SAF General Policy includes a 700 million litres/year capacity target by 2030 and a voluntary 1% locally produced SAF target by 2031.
Supply ambition: the UAE National Hydrogen Strategy targets 1.4 mtpa by 2031, 7.5 mtpa by 2040, and 15 mtpa by 2050.

Ground operations are also a near-term decarbonisation surface area, and Dubai Airports’ sustainability showcase has highlighted hydrogen-powered buses and ground equipment as part of airport operational solutions.

A practical UAE roadmap: what to prioritise by phase

Phase 1 (now–2030): scale SAF and build claims governance

The fastest progress comes from scaling SAF where available, improving operational efficiency, and building the measurement and verification backbone that makes claims defensible.

Priorities that make Phase 1 “real”:

Lock down fuel data capture (volumes, batches, uplift locations).
Standardise documentation collection (certificates, pathway details, sustainability attributes).
Define your reporting boundary and baseline method before publishing any “reductions” claim.
Align with aviation schemes where needed through ICAO’s CORSIA eligible fuels guidance.

Phase 2 (2030–2040): industrialise e-fuels and expand airport hydrogen ecosystems

This is when hydrogen becomes a bigger lever through PtL e-fuels and airport hydrogen use, but scaling depends on energy, CO₂ sourcing, and certification readiness.

Practical dependencies:

Clean electricity availability and contracting structure.
CO₂ sourcing approach and eligibility (biogenic vs DAC vs industrial).
Certification pathway, auditing readiness, and repeatable supply chain processes.
Airport-side hydrogen use where duty cycles and infrastructure are manageable.

Phase 3 (2040+): hydrogen flight readiness and mature hubs

Direct hydrogen flight requires aircraft redesign, airport infrastructure upgrades, and mature safety/certification ecosystems, so it becomes relevant later for most networks.

Infrastructure considerations include storage, distribution, safety standards, and aircraft constraints driven by hydrogen volume, as summarised in an IATA hydrogen fact sheet.

Aviation fuel claims checklist (minimum evidence before you publish a number)

If you cannot document the inputs and boundaries, you cannot defend the claim.

Use this checklist before publishing “SAF used”, “emissions reduced”, or “net zero flight” statements:

Fuel type and pathway: SAF vs PtL e-fuel; specify the pathway where possible.
Fuel specification evidence: confirm compliance with relevant aviation fuel specs such as ASTM D7566.
Volumes and dates: litres/tonnes, time period, and which flights or operations are in scope.
Batch and certificate references: certificate IDs, batch numbers, and traceability documents.
Chain-of-custody model: physical delivery vs book-and-claim; explicitly state which applies.
Electricity source (for PtL): geography, time period, grid vs PPA, and any additionality claims.
CO₂ source (for e-fuels): biogenic vs DAC vs industrial, and the accounting boundary for eligibility.
Lifecycle method and boundary: what is included/excluded, and what baseline comparator is used.
Verification and governance: who reviewed the claim (sustainability, finance, legal) and where evidence is stored.

The credibility gap: why measurement will decide who wins

Hydrogen-derived aviation fuels are only “clean” if you can prove the underlying lifecycle story. That usually requires evidence for:

electricity sourcing and additionality (where relevant),
CO₂ sourcing and eligibility (for e-fuels),
lifecycle boundaries and calculation method,
chain-of-custody from production through uplift.

This is where programs often fail. The engineering can be sound, but the data trail is weak. When documentation is scattered across procurement, operations, and suppliers, claims become hard to defend to regulators, auditors, and corporate customers. Aviation adds an extra layer because buyers increasingly expect claims to align with recognised schemes and fuel specifications, including ICAO’s CORSIA Eligible Fuels guidance and ASTM D7566.

Where Coral fits

Fuel transitions create a familiar aviation challenge: sustainability data fragments across procurement, operations, finance, and suppliers, while scrutiny on what can and cannot be claimed keeps rising.

Coral helps aviation and airport teams build audit-ready emissions data infrastructure by ingesting activity and supplier data, standardising it into traceable datasets, and maintaining a defensible audit trail so reporting becomes decision-grade intelligence. Explore Coral’s Emissions Management System for Scope 1–3 measurement and hotspot tracking, and ESG Reporting for structured disclosures aligned to major frameworks; if you’re setting up your data foundation, Coral’s Getting started resources can help you structure the first steps.

Planning SAF, e-fuels, or hydrogen pilots in the UAE? Book a demo to see how Coral supports traceability, audit trails, and claims governance from day one.

FAQ

Will green hydrogen replace jet fuel soon?

Not soon for most long-haul routes. In the near to mid term, hydrogen is more likely to scale through PtL e-fuels and airport ground operations first, with direct hydrogen flight later as aircraft and infrastructure mature, and Reuters reported Airbus postponed development of its hydrogen aircraft beyond earlier ambitions.

What’s the difference between SAF and e-fuels?

SAF refers to non-fossil jet fuel pathways that meet aviation fuel specifications and can be blended into jet fuel supply. E-fuels (often PtL e-kerosene) are synthetic fuels made using low-emission hydrogen and captured CO₂, designed to be compatible with today’s aircraft if they meet the required specifications described in ASTM D7566.

What’s the UAE’s SAF target?

The UAE SAF policy includes a target to increase local SAF production capacity to 700 million litres annually by 2030, and a voluntary target for locally produced SAF to represent at least 1% of fuel used by national airlines at UAE airports by 2031, as stated in the UAE SAF General Policy.

What’s the UAE hydrogen target?

The UAE’s hydrogen strategy targets 1.4 mtpa by 2031, 7.5 mtpa by 2040, and 15 mtpa by 2050, as set out in the UAE National Hydrogen Strategy.

What data do airports need to make SAF or e-fuel claims audit-ready?

At minimum: fuel volumes by period, batch and certificate references, chain-of-custody documentation, lifecycle method and boundary, and clear evidence for electricity and CO₂ sourcing for e-fuels; when aligning to aviation schemes, documentation should map to ICAO’s CORSIA eligible fuels guidance.

Where does hydrogen make sense first in airports?

Typically in ground operations where duty cycles are predictable and infrastructure can be managed on-site, such as airside vehicles, buses, and certain ground support equipment, and Dubai Airports’ sustainability showcase has referenced hydrogen-powered buses and refuelling dispensers within airport operational decarbonisation.